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Some consider today’s stock market a “stock pickers market.” Others consider it a “traders market.” Still others label it a “cyclical bull market.” As for individual selection of equities, the recent market actions have demonstrated that rates of returnboth positive and negativeare impacted to a far greater extent by asset allocation and portfolio construction than individual stock selection, and should be the primary focus for individuals.
The threat of imminent failure of the financial system has retreated as a result of massive government intervention. Nevertheless, substantial economic, investment and systemic risks remain. While we cannot foresee the future and acknowledge that markets sometimes trade independently (or ahead) of fundamentals, we believe these risks call for continued caution notwithstanding the exuberant rebound of equity and debt markets as they responded to virtually unprecedented government actions and assertions that it would do “what it takes” to turn the economic tide. During the second quarter of 2009 investors were searching for confidence. Confidence in a near-term time horizon for attaining a sustainable and growing economy. Confidence that such will translate into a growth trend for corporate earnings, and confidence that such earnings will not be materially burdened by legacy or impaired assets still reflected on the balance sheets of major financial institutions. Recently, the new administration announced its plan to purchase the troubled assets in private-government partnerships. The plan is designed to address two classes of assets held by the banksportfolio loans and asset-backed securities. There remains considerable uncertainty with respect to these programs. The equity markets have reacted to all this uncertainty, rallying on the hope surrounding government announcements and news of possible relaxation of the mark-to-market rules, and selling off on news of increased unemployment, deepening recession, declining home prices, and declining corporate earnings.
Topical Matters Memoranda are all in .pdf format and requires the Adobe Acrobat Reader to view or print.
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